There are huge differences in female breast cancer mortality between urban and rural China. In order to better prevent breast cancer equally in urban and rural areas, it is critical to trace the root causes of past inequities and predict how future differences will change. Moreover, carcinogenic factors from micro-individual to macro-environment also need to be analyzed in detail. However, there is no systematic research covering these two aspects in the current literature.
Breast cancer mortality data in urban and rural China from 1994 to 2019 are collected, which from China Health Statistical Yearbook. The Age-Period-Cohort model is used to examine the effects of different age groups, periods, and birth cohorts on breast cancer mortality. Nordpred project is used to predict breast cancer mortality from 2020 to 2039.
The age effect gradually increases and changes from negative to positive at the age of 40–44. The period effect fluctuates very little and shows the largest difference between urban and rural areas in 2019. The birth cohort effect gradually decreases with urban-rural effects alternating between strong and weak. In the predicted results, the urban-rural mortality gap becomes first narrow and then wide and shows a trend of younger death.
From the perspective of a temporal system, the changing trend of breast cancer mortality is highly consistent with the history of social and economic structural changes in China. From the perspective of the theory of social determinants of health, individuals, families, institutions and governments need to participate in the prevention of breast cancer.