AUTHOR=Xu Honglv , Zhang Yi , Yuan Min , Ma Liya , Liu Meng , Gan Hong , Liu Wenwen , Lum Gillian Gianna Anne , Tao Fangbiao 

TITLE=Basic Reproduction Number of the 2019 Novel Coronavirus Disease in the Major Endemic Areas of China: A Latent Profile Analysis

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=9

YEAR=2021

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2021.575315

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2021.575315

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=<p><bold>Objective:</bold> The aim of this study is to analyze the latent class of basic reproduction number (<italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub>) trends of the 2019 novel coronavirus disease (COVID-19) in the major endemic areas of China.</p><p><bold>Methods:</bold> The provinces that reported more than 500 cases of COVID-19 till February 18, 2020 were selected as the major endemic areas. The Verhulst model was used to fit the growth rate of cumulative confirmed cases. The <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> of COVID-19 was calculated using the parameters of severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) and COVID-19. The latent class of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> was analyzed using the latent profile analysis (LPA) model.</p><p><bold>Results:</bold> The median <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> calculated from the SARS and COVID-19 parameters were 1.84–3.18 and 1.74–2.91, respectively. The <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> calculated from the SARS parameters was greater than that calculated from the COVID-19 parameters (<italic>Z</italic> = −4.782 to −4.623, <italic>p</italic> &lt; 0.01). Both <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> can be divided into three latent classes. The initial value of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> in class 1 (Shandong Province, Sichuan Province, and Chongqing Municipality) was relatively low and decreased slowly. The initial value of <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> in class 2 (Anhui Province, Hunan Province, Jiangxi Province, Henan Province, Zhejiang Province, Guangdong Province, and Jiangsu Province) was relatively high and decreased rapidly. Moreover, the initial <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> value of class 3 (Hubei Province) was in the range between that of classes 1 and 2, but the higher <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> level lasted longer and decreased slowly.</p><p><bold>Conclusion:</bold> The results indicated that the overall <italic>R</italic><sub>0</sub> trend is decreased with the strengthening of comprehensive prevention and control measures of China for COVID-19, however, there are regional differences.</p>