AUTHOR=Arokiaraj Mark Christopher 

TITLE=Considering Interim Interventions to Control COVID-19 Associated Morbidity and Mortality—Perspectives

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health

VOLUME=8

YEAR=2020

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00444

DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2020.00444

ISSN=2296-2565

ABSTRACT=<p><bold>Aims and objectives:</bold> The pandemic of COVID-19 is evolving worldwide, and it is associated with high mortality and morbidity. There is a growing need to discuss the elements of a coordinated strategy to control the spread and mitigate the severity of COVID-19. H1N1 and <italic>Streptococcus pneumonia</italic> vaccines are available. The current analysis was performed to analyze the severity of COVID-19 and influenza (H1N1) vaccination in adults ≥ 65. Also, to correlate the lower respiratory tract infections (LRIs), and influenza attributable to the lower respiratory tract infections' incidence with Covid-19 mortality. Evolutionarily influenza is close in resemblance to SARS-CoV-2 viruses and shares some common epitopes and mechanisms.</p><p><bold>Methods:</bold> Recent influenza vaccination data of 34 countries from OECD and other publications were correlated with COVID-19 mortality from worldometer data. LRIs attributable to influenza and streptococcus pneumonia were correlated with COVID-19 mortality. Specifically, influenza-attributable LRI incidence data of various countries (<italic>n</italic> = 182) was correlated with COVID-19 death by linear regression and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analyzes. In a logistic regression model, population density and influenza LRI incidence were correlated with COVID-19 mortality.</p><p><bold>Results:</bold> There is a correlation between COVID-19-related mortality, morbidity, and case incidence and the status of influenza vaccination, which appears protective. The tendency of correlation is increasingly highlighted as the pandemic is evolving. In countries where influenza immunization is less common, there is a correlation between LRIs and influenza attributable to LRI incidence and COVID-19 severity, which is beneficial. ROC curve showed an area under the curve of 0.86 (CI 0.78 to 0.944, <italic>P</italic> &lt; 0.0001) to predict COVID-19 mortality &gt;150/million and a decreasing trend of influenza LRI episodes. To predict COVID-19 mortality of &gt;200/million population, the odds ratio for influenza incidence/100,000 was −1.86 (CI −2.75 to −0.96, <italic>P</italic> &lt; 0.0001). To predict the parameter Covid-19 mortality/influenza LRI episodes<sup>*</sup>1000&gt;1000, the influenza parameter had an odd's ratio of −3.83 (CI −5.98 to −1.67), and an AUC of 0.94.</p><p><bold>Conclusion:</bold> Influenza (H1N1) vaccination can be used as an interim measure to mitigate the severity of COVID-19 in the general population. In appropriate high-risk circumstances, <italic>Streptococcus pneumonia</italic> vaccination would also be an adjunct strategy, especially in countries with a lower incidence of LRIs.</p>