AUTHOR=Meyer Anne , Sadler Rohan , Faverjon Céline , Cameron Angus Robert , Bannister-Tyrrell Melanie TITLE=Evidence That Higher Temperatures Are Associated With a Marginally Lower Incidence of COVID-19 Cases JOURNAL=Frontiers in Public Health VOLUME=8 YEAR=2020 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/public-health/articles/10.3389/fpubh.2020.00367 DOI=10.3389/fpubh.2020.00367 ISSN=2296-2565 ABSTRACT=

Seasonal variations in COVID-19 incidence have been suggested as a potentially important factor in the future trajectory of the pandemic. Using global line-list data on COVID-19 cases reported until 17th of March 2020 and global gridded weather data, we assessed the effects of air temperature and relative humidity on the daily incidence of confirmed COVID-19 local cases at the subnational level (first-level administrative divisions). After adjusting for surveillance capacity and time since first imported case, average temperature had a statistically significant, negative association with COVID-19 incidence for temperatures of −15°C and above. However, temperature only explained a relatively modest amount of the total variation in COVID-19 cases. The effect of relative humidity was not statistically significant. These results suggest that warmer weather may modestly reduce the rate of spread of COVID-19, but anticipation of a substantial decline in transmission due to temperature alone with onset of summer in the northern hemisphere, or in tropical regions, is not warranted by these findings.