AUTHOR=Klein Gary , Jalaeian Mohammadreza , Hoffman Robert R. , Mueller Shane T. TITLE=The plausibility transition model for sensemaking JOURNAL=Frontiers in Psychology VOLUME=14 YEAR=2023 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychology/articles/10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1160132 DOI=10.3389/fpsyg.2023.1160132 ISSN=1664-1078 ABSTRACT=

When people make plausibility judgments about an assertion, an event, or a piece of evidence, they are gauging whether it makes sense that the event could transpire as it did. Therefore, we can treat plausibility judgments as a part of sensemaking. In this paper, we review the research literature, presenting the different ways that plausibility has been defined and measured. Then we describe the naturalistic research that allowed us to model how plausibility judgments are engaged during the sensemaking process. The model is based on an analysis of 23 cases in which people tried to make sense of complex situations. The model describes the user’s attempts to construct a narrative as a state transition string, relying on plausibility judgments for each transition point. The model has implications for measurement and for training.