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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Psychiatry
Sec. ADHD
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpsyt.2025.1532156
The Burden of Attention Deficit Hyperactivity Disorder and Incidence Rate Forecast in China from 1990 to 2021
Provisionally accepted- 1 Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, China
- 2 School of Medical Imaging, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan, China
- 3 The First Affiliated Hospital of Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, Henan Province, China
To analyze the temporal trends and future projections of attentiondeficit/hyperactivity disorder (ADHD) burden among children and adolescents in China from 1990 to 2021, and to identify age-, period-, and cohort-specific drivers of disease progression.Using data from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021, we conducted joinpoint regression to detect trend transitions in ADHD incidence and agestandardized rates. Age-period-cohort (APC) modeling was applied to disentangle the effects of age, calendar period, and birth cohort on disease burden. Projections up to 2046 were generated using demographic forecasts from the GBD 2017 population database.Results: Crude ADHD prevalence declined by 21.17% (2168.055 to 1723.307 per 100,000), yet age-standardized prevalence increased by 9.86% (AAPC=0.272%, 95%CI:0.173-0.372, P<0.001). Similarly, age-standardized DALY rates rose by 10.15% (AAPC=0.262%, 95%CI:0.160-0.364), with females showing faster growth than males (AAPC for DALY: 0.294% vs. 0.229%, P=0.003). Adolescents aged 10-14 years bore the highest burden, with prevalence (5,727.28/100,000) and DALY rates (70.55/100,000) twice the global average. APC projections indicated a peak incidence in 2029 for this age group, linked to cohort effects from China's "Double Reduction" education policy and rising digital exposure.: China faces a rising ADHD burden driven by sociodemographic transitions and diagnostic advancements. Targeted interventions-particularly for adolescents and females-are urgently needed. Strengthening school-based screening, integrating AI-driven diagnostic tools, and prioritizing mental health in national policies could mitigate long-term impacts. These findings underscore the necessity of dynamic surveillance systems to address ADHD's evolving epidemiology in transitioning societies.
Keywords: ADHD1, China2, age-period-cohort model3, Disease burden4, health policy5
Received: 06 Dec 2024; Accepted: 13 Feb 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Li, Zhao and Zhou. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Junqiang Zhao, School of Medical Imaging, Xinxiang Medical University, Xinxiang, 453003, Henan, China
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