Individuals with schizophrenia spectrum disorders (SSD) have an elevated risk for aggressive behavior, and several factors contributing to this risk have been identified, e. g. comorbid substance use disorders. From this knowledge, it could be inferred that offender patients show a higher expression of said risk factors than non-offender patients. Yet, there is a lack of comparative studies between those two groups, and findings gathered from one of the two are not directly applicable to the other due to numerous structural differences. The aim of this study therefore was to identify key differences in offender patients and non-offender patients regarding aggressive behavior through application of supervised machine learning, and to quantify the performance of the model.
For this purpose, we applied seven different (ML) algorithms on a dataset comprising 370 offender patients and a comparison group of 370 non-offender patients, both with a schizophrenia spectrum disorder.
With a balanced accuracy of 79.9%, an AUC of 0.87, a sensitivity of 77.3% and a specificity of 82.5%, gradient boosting emerged as best performing model and was able to correctly identify offender patients in over 4/5 the cases. Out of 69 possible predictor variables, the following emerged as the ones with the most indicative power in distinguishing between the two groups: olanzapine equivalent dose at the time of discharge from the referenced hospitalization, failures during temporary leave, being born outside of Switzerland, lack of compulsory school graduation, out- and inpatient treatment(s) prior to the referenced hospitalization, physical or neurological illness as well as medication compliance.
Interestingly, both factors related to psychopathology and to the frequency and expression of aggression itself did not yield a high indicative power in the interplay of variables, thus suggesting that while they individually contribute to aggression as a negative outcome, they are compensable through certain interventions. The findings contribute to our understanding of differences between offenders and non-offenders with SSD, showing that previously described risk factors of aggression may be counteracted through sufficient treatment and integration in the mental health care system.