AUTHOR=Tan Juntao , Xu Zhengguo , He Yuxin , Zhang Lingqin , Xiang Shoushu , Xu Qian , Xu Xiaomei , Gong Jun , Tan Chao , Tan Langmin 

TITLE=A web-based novel prediction model for predicting depression in elderly patients with coronary heart disease: A multicenter retrospective, propensity-score matched study

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Psychiatry

VOLUME=13

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/psychiatry/articles/10.3389/fpsyt.2022.949753

DOI=10.3389/fpsyt.2022.949753

ISSN=1664-0640

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Background</title><p>Depression is associated with an increased risk of death in patients with coronary heart disease (CHD). This study aimed to explore the factors influencing depression in elderly patients with CHD and to construct a prediction model for early identification of depression in this patient population.</p></sec><sec><title>Materials and methods</title><p>We used propensity-score matching to identify 1,065 CHD patients aged ≥65 years from four hospitals in Chongqing between January 2015 and December 2021. The patients were divided into a training set (<italic>n</italic> = 880) and an external validation set (<italic>n</italic> = 185). Univariate logistic regression, multivariate logistic regression, and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression were used to determine the factors influencing depression. A nomogram based on the multivariate logistic regression model was constructed using the selected influencing factors. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility of the nomogram were assessed by the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and clinical impact curve (CIC), respectively.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The predictive factors in the multivariate model included the lymphocyte percentage and the blood urea nitrogen and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels. The AUC values of the nomogram in the training and external validation sets were 0.762 (95% CI = 0.722–0.803) and 0.679 (95% CI = 0.572–0.786), respectively. The calibration curves indicated that the nomogram had strong calibration. DCA and CIC indicated that the nomogram can be used as an effective tool in clinical practice. For the convenience of clinicians, we used the nomogram to develop a web-based calculator tool (<ext-link ext-link-type="uri" xlink:href="https://cytjt007.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_depression/" xmlns:xlink="http://www.w3.org/1999/xlink">https://cytjt007.shinyapps.io/dynnomapp_depression/</ext-link>).</p></sec><sec><title>Conclusion</title><p>Reductions in the lymphocyte percentage and blood urea nitrogen and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol levels were reliable predictors of depression in elderly patients with CHD. The nomogram that we developed can help clinicians assess the risk of depression in elderly patients with CHD.</p></sec>