Suitability mapping of native tree species in dry-hot valleys of Yunnan based on InVEST-MaxEnt coupled modeling: model validation framework with native tree species actual distribution and seed germination

Meng Xie ¹ Xiaobo Song ² Xuexing Zhang ³ Peixian Zhao ⁴ Yongpeng Ma ⁵ Zhilin Song ⁶ Fengjuan Li ¹ Wei Li ⁷ Linyuan Fan ⁸ Hong Ma ^1,9*

• ¹ Institute of Highland Forest Science, Chinese Academy of Forestry, China, China
• ² Rushan Inspection and Testing Center, Rushan, China
• ³ Yunnan Academy of Forestry and Grassland, Kunming, China
• ⁴ Forestry and Grassland Bureau of Yuanmou, Yuanmou, China
• ⁵ Key Laboratory for Integrative Conservation of Plant Species with Extremely Small Populations, Kunming Institute of Botany, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Kunming, Yunnan Province, China
• ⁶ Rushan Forestry Development Center, Rushan, China
• ⁷ Yunnan Jicheng Landscape Technology Co., Ltd., Mile, China
• ⁸ Yunnan General Administration of Forestry Seeds and Seedlings, Kunming, China
• ⁹ Key Laboratory of Breeding and Utilization of Resource Insects, National Forestry and Grassland Administration, Kunming, China

This study investigates native tree species suitability in Yunnan's dry-hot valleys using an integrated MaxEnt-InVEST modeling framework. The target valleys along the Jinsha, Nujiang, Lancang, and Yuanjiang Rivers exhibit acute human-land conflicts and ecosystem vulnerability. Temperature and precipitation emerged as dominant bioclimatic controls, with optimal species occurrence (1 000-2 500 m) showing negative elevation correlation. Four native tree species (Osteomeles schwerinae, Phyllanthus emblica, Quercus franchetii and Sapindus delavayi) displayed fragmented suitable areas along mountainous riparian zones, while habitat quality hotspots predominantly covered non-urbanized regions, avoiding central urban clusters and northeastern/southeastern karst zones. The coupled model demonstrated significantly improved accuracy compared to the standalone MaxEnt by incorporating land-use impacts, with Yuanmou County case analysis confirming the enhanced predictive capability through actual distribution patterns. Spatial prioritization identified core planting clusters in central/southeastern valleys, though fragmented by agricultural encroachment. This methodology provides a cost-effective solution for vegetation restoration planning in ecologically fragile dry-hot ecosystems. The research results can provide scientific support for the restoration of degraded ecosystems in dry-hot valleys Corresponding author.