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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Plant Biophysics and Modeling
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1552770
This article is part of the Research Topic Mechanistic Insights into Plant Biomechanical and Biochemical Adaptation to Climate Change View all 3 articles
Effects of ultraviolet radiation as a climate variable on the geographic distribution of Oryza sativa under climate change based on Biomod2
Provisionally accepted- 1 Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, China
- 2 Key Laboratory of Sichuan Province Animal Breeding and Genetics Institute, Sichuan Animal Science Academy, Chengdu, Sichuan Province, China
- 3 Sichuan Province Agro-meteorological Center, chengdu, China
- 4 Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences, Beijing, China
- 5 Mianyang Bureau of Meteorology, Mianyang, China
- 6 China West Normal University, Nanchong, Sichuan Province, China
Oryza sativa is one of the most important cereal crops globally. The aim of this study was to map areas suitable for the growth and conservation of O. sativa under current and future climatic conditions, and to observe the effects of UV variables on the distribution area of O. sativa. Based on species distribution records, we used the Biomod2 platform to combine climate data, future shared socioeconomic pathways, and elevation data. The ensemble model (EM) was constructed by screening multiple species distribution models (SDMs), including RF, GBM, ANN, and MARS. The ROC value of the joint model is greater than 0.95, indicating that the model has high reliability and accuracy. Mean annual temperature (bio01), temperature seasonality (bio04), minimum temperature in the coldest month (bio06), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), human footprint and human activity impact index (hf_v2geo1) and annual average ultraviolet radiation (uvb1_annual_mean_uv.b) were the most important environmental variables affecting the suitable distribution area of O. sativa. Under the current climate conditions, the suitable habitats of O. sativa are mainly distributed in the south of the Yangtze River. In the future climate scenario, the total suitable habitat area of O. sativa tended to decrease, but the suitable distribution area under the influence of UV was larger than that without UV. Climate change will significantly affect the potential distribution of O. sativa in China and increase its extinction risk. Therefore, it is necessary to provide a reference for the conservation, management, introduction and cultivation of food crops in China.
Keywords: biomod2, Climate Change, Potential Geographic Distributions, Oryza sativa, Ensemble model, climate-suitable region
Received: 29 Dec 2024; Accepted: 10 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Wang, Wang, Guo, Song, Cai and Wu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Mingtian Wang, Institute of Plateau Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Chengdu, China
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