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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Functional Plant Ecology
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1528255
Climate Change Impacts on the Predicted Geographic Distribution of Betula tianschanica Rupr
Provisionally accepted- 1 Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, China
- 2 School of Life Sciences, Faculty of Science, Peking University, Beijing, Beijing Municipality, China
Betula tianschanica Rupr. is distributed in regions such as China, Kyrgyzstan, and Tajikistan. Owing to the impacts of climate change, it is increasingly threatened by habitat fragmentation, resulting in a precipitous decline in its population. Currently listed as endangered on the Red List of Trees of Central Asia, this species is predominantly found in the Tianshan Mountains.Examining the influence of climate change on the geographical distribution pattern of Betula tianschanica is crucial for the management and conservation of its wild resources. This study employs two models, MaxEnt and RF, combined with 116 distribution points of Betula tianschanica and 27 environmental factor variables, to investigate the environmental determinants of the distribution of Betula tianschanica and project its potential geographical distribution areas. The results indicate:(1) The MaxEnt model and the RF model respectively determine the primary environmental factors influencing the potential distribution of Betula tianschanica. The MaxEnt model shows that the percentage of gravel volume in the lower soil layer and Elevation are the most significant, while the RF model considers Elevation and Precipitation of Wettest Quarter to be the most crucial. Both models unanimously assert that Elevation is the pivotal environmental element affecting the distribution of Betula tianschanica. (2) The mean AUC scores for the MaxEnt model and RF are 0.970 and 0.873, revealing that the MaxEnt model outperforms the RF model in predictive accuracy. Consequently, the present study employs the estimated geographical area for Betula tianschanica modeled by the MaxEnt model as a reference. Following the MaxEnt model's projected outcomes, Betula tianschanica is mainly located in territories such as
Keywords: Betula tianschanica Rupr., Maxent, RF, environmental factors, Predicted geographic distribution
Received: 14 Nov 2024; Accepted: 17 Feb 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 周, Li, Luo, Wang, Xie, Lin and Hua. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Donglai Hua, Mianyang Normal University, Mianyang, China
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