Developing a spatio-temporal model for Banana Bunchy Top Disease: leveraging remote sensing and survey data

Renata Retkute^*Christopher A Gilligan

• University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom

Epidemics of Banana Bunchy Top Disease (BBTD) in Sub-Saharan Africa are threatening global food security and endangering the livelihoods of smallholder farmers. The study introduces methods for developing data-based models for deriving banana production maps and processbased models for assessing the potential spread of BBTV at a landscape scale. We introduce two novel aspects: a methodology for deriving probabilistic banana production maps based on high resolution remote sensing products; and parameterisation of the epidemiological model for BBTD from limited survey data. We generate a countrywide banana production map for Tanzania and a state-wide map for Ogun state in Nigeria. We use the banana map together with published data from BBTD surveys to parameterise a model for BBTD spread in Tanzania . Our results emphasize the importance of surveys, as having data on Banana Bunchy Top Virus (BBTV) presence and absence at different stages of epidemics is crucial not only for effective control of the disease, but also for prediction, including making reasonable model assumption, model parameterisation and model validation that underpin predictions.