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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Plant Abiotic Stress
Volume 16 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fpls.2025.1481431

Examination of future changes in temperature parameters determining the suitability of winegrapes in Hungarian wine regions from 1986 to 2100 Assessment of Historical and Future Changes in Temperature variables for Winegrape Suitability in Hungarian Wine Regions (1986-2100)

Provisionally accepted
Laszlo Lakatos Laszlo Lakatos *Richárd Nagy Richárd Nagy
  • Eszterhazy Karoly Catholic University, Eger, Hungary

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Climate change is significantly impacting our agricultural crops and their cultivation areas, which are expected to change considerably by the end of the century. Temperature conditions decisively influence the safe suitability of grapes in a given location. We analysed the temporal changes of four temperature indicators Average Growing Season Temperature (AGST), Growing Degree Days (GDD, Huglin index (HI) and Biologically Effective Degree Days (BEDD) across 22 Hungarian wine regions from 1971 to 2100, using data from 14 climate models under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. To investigate the future suitability of wine grapes, we introduced the dynamic suitability function, which allowed us to analyse the suitability of the average temperature during the growing season for 21 wine grape varieties from 2031 to 2100 in decadal increments. Additionally, a temperature impact function was introduced to characterise the suitability of 21 wine grape varieties with values ranging from 0 to 1, based on the average temperature during the growing season. The results confirmed that the frequency of temperature indices used in grape cultivation will shift distinctly towards warmer climate classes in the future. The increasingly warmer climate presents certain advantages but also has growing cultivation risks. In the most optimistic scenario, the average temperature during the growing season may decrease by 0.8°C over the next seven decades. However, in the most pessimistic model, the change expected by the end of the century exceeds a 4.0°C increase. For wine grape varieties with lower heat requirements, suitability under the pessimistic RCP 8.5 emission scenario is projected to decrease by 29% by the end of the century. Conversely, under the optimistic scenarios, the decline in suitability values is only between 3-4%. For grape varieties with higher heat requirements, a 10% decrease in suitability is expected under the RCP 8.5 scenario. In contrast, the RCP 4.5 scenario suggests that suitability could improve by 1-2% by the end of the century. Our results will contribute to a better understanding of the impacts and consequences of climate change and how to prepare for them in the viticulture sector.

    Keywords: climate change1, winegrapes2, Average Growing Season Temperature4.gGrowing dDegree dDays-Winkler index3, Huglin index6, growing season temperature4, bBiologically eEffective dDegree dDays5

    Received: 15 Aug 2024; Accepted: 07 Jan 2025.

    Copyright: © 2025 Lakatos and Nagy. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Laszlo Lakatos, Eszterhazy Karoly Catholic University, Eger, Hungary

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.