Zixuan Wen
1
Ke Yan
2*
Qing Duan
2*The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.
ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Plant Sci.
Sec. Functional Plant Ecology
Volume 15 - 2024 |
doi: 10.3389/fpls.2024.1505985
This article is part of the Research Topic Plant Ecophysiology: Responses to Climate Changes and Stress Conditions View all 13 articles
Predicting the potential distribution of Astragali Radix in China under climate change adopting the MaxEnt model
Provisionally accepted- 1 Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China
- 2 Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
In this study, we assessed the potential impacts of climate change on the distribution of the Chinese medicinal plant Astragali Radix using the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model in combination with a geographic information system (GIS). Distribution data and environmental variables were analyzed to predict suitable areas for Astragali Radix under the SSP126, SSP245 and SSP585 scenario for current and future (2041-2060, 2061-2080, 2081-2100). Jackknife is used to assess the importance of environmental variables, and environmental variables with a model contribution greater than 5% were considered to be the main drivers. The results showed that the current area of suitable area for Astragali Radix is 188.41 km 2 , and the three climate scenarios show an increasing trend in the future, with a maximum of 212.70 km 2 . North China has always been the main suitable area, while the area of suitable area in Southwest China is decreasing, and Xinjiang will be developed as a new suitable area in the future. Annual precipitation (41.6%), elevation (15.9%), topsoil calcium carbonate (14.8%), annual mean temperature (8.3%), precipitation seasonality (8%) and topsoil pH (6%) contributed more to the model and were the main environmental influences on the distribution of Astragali Radix. In addition, the centroids of the suitable areas shifted northward under all three climate scenarios, indicating a migratory response to global warming. This study provide a scientific basis for the development of planting strategies and spatial distribution management of Astragali Radix. It helps to optimize the selection of planting areas and resource conservation of Chinese herbs.
Keywords: Astragali Radix, maximum entropy model, geographic information system, Suitable area, Environmental factor, Climate Change
Received: 04 Oct 2024; Accepted: 19 Nov 2024.
Copyright: © 2024 Wen, Yan, Zhang, Ma, Zhu, Duan and Jiang. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Ke Yan, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
Man Zhang, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
Ruiqing Ma, Shandong Second Medical University, Weifang, China
Xiaoyan Zhu, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
Qing Duan, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
Xiaolin Jiang, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Jinan, Shandong Province, China
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