Songtao Yang ¹ Yongqi Ge ^1* Jing Wang ¹ Rui Liu ¹ Li Fu ²

• ¹ Ningxia University, Yinchuan, China
• ² Ningxia Normal University, Guyuan, China

Leaf area index (LAI) of alfalfa is a crucial indicator of its growth status and a predictor of yield. The LAI of alfalfa is influenced by environmental factors, and the limitations of non-linear models in integrating these factors affect the accuracy of LAI predictions. This study explores the potential of classical non-linear models and deep learning for predicting alfalfa LAI. Initially, Logistic, Gompertz, and Richards models were developed based on growth days to assess the applicability of nonlinear models for LAI prediction of alfalfa. In contrast, this study combines environmental factors such as temperature and soil moisture, and proposes a time series prediction model based on mutation point detection method and encoder-attention-decoder BiLSTM network (TMEAD-BiLSTM). The model's performance was analyzed and evaluated against LAI data from different years and cuts. The results indicate that the TMEAD-BiLSTM model achieved the highest prediction accuracy (R² > 0.99), while the non-linear models exhibited lower accuracy (R² > 0.78). The TMEAD-BiLSTM model overcomes the limitations of nonlinear models in integrating environmental factors, enabling rapid and accurate predictions of alfalfa LAI, which can provide valuable references for alfalfa growth monitoring and the establishment of field management practices.