AUTHOR=Lin Xiaokun , Chang Baoliang , Huang Yanqing , Jin Xin 

TITLE=Predicting the impact of climate change and land use change on the potential distribution of two economic forest trees in Northeastern China

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=15

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1407867

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2024.1407867

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>Young shoots of <italic>Aralia elata</italic> and young leaves of <italic>Eleutherococcus senticosus</italic> are two major non-timber forest products in northeastern China. However, human activities and climate change have resulted in serious threats to the habitats of two trees, which greatly limits resource conservation and exploitation of economic forest trees. We used the MaxEnt model to predict the suitable habitats of the two economic trees and analyzed the dominant factors affecting their distribution. The results showed that the suitable habitat areas of <italic>A. elata</italic> and <italic>E. senticosus</italic> in the current period were 159950 km<sup>2</sup> and 123449 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively, and the suitable habitats of both economic forest trees were located in the eastern part of the northeast region. Climate factors (Annual precipitation, Precipitation Seasonality) and land use factors are important variables influencing changes in suitable habitat for both trees. With the change of climate and land use in the future, the overall trend of suitable habitat for both economic forest trees shows a northward and then a southward migration. These results may provide assistance in developing strategies for resource conservation and sustainable use of <italic>A. elata</italic> and <italic>E. senticosus</italic>, and we suggest that stable and suitable habitats should be selected as areas for <italic>in situ</italic> conservation and breeding of the two economic forest trees.</p>