AUTHOR=Wang En , Lu Zongran , Rohani Emelda Rosseleena , Ou Jinmei , Tong Xiaohui , Han Rongchun 

TITLE=Current and future distribution of Forsythia suspensa in China under climate change adopting the MaxEnt model

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=15

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1394799

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2024.1394799

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>This study evaluated the potential impact of climate change on the distribution of <italic>Forsythia suspensa</italic>, a valuable traditional Chinese medicinal plant, using the MaxEnt model integrated with Geographic Information System (GIS). By analyzing occurrence data from various databases and environmental variables including climate and soil factors, we forecasted the present and future (2050s and 2070s) habitat suitability of <italic>F. suspensa</italic> under different greenhouse gas emission scenarios (RCP8.5, RCP4.5, RCP2.6). Results indicated that the suitable habitats for <italic>F. suspensa</italic> were primarily located in North, East, Central, Northwest, and Southwest China, with a significant potential expansion of suitable habitats anticipated by the 2070s, particularly under the high emission scenario. The study identified precipitation and temperature as the primary environmental drivers impacting the distribution of <italic>F. suspensa</italic>. Furthermore, a northward shift in the centroid of suitable habitats under future climate scenarios suggested a potential migration response to global warming. This work provides crucial insights into the future conservation and cultivation strategies for <italic>F. suspensa</italic> amidst changing climatic conditions.</p>