AUTHOR=Xian Xiaoqing , Qi Yuhan , Zhao Haoxiang , Cao Jingjing , Jia Tao , Yang Nianwan , Wan Fanghao , Weyl Philip , Liu Wan-xue TITLE=Temperature extremes nip invasive macrophyte Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray in the bud: potential geographic distributions and risk assessment based on future climate change and anthropogenic influences JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science VOLUME=15 YEAR=2024 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1393663 DOI=10.3389/fpls.2024.1393663 ISSN=1664-462X ABSTRACT=

Cabomba caroliniana A. Gray, an ornamental submerged plant indigenous to tropical America, has been introduced to numerous countries in Europe, Asia, and Oceania, impacting native aquatic ecosystems. Given this species is a popular aquarium plant and widely traded, there is a high risk of introduction and invasion into other environments. In the current study the potential global geographic distribution of C. caroliniana was predicted under the effects of climate change and human influence in an optimised MaxEnt model. The model used rigorously screened occurrence records of C. caroliniana from hydro informatic datasets and 20 associated influencing factors. The findings indicate that temperature and human-mediated activities significantly influenced the distribution of C. caroliniana. At present, C. caroliniana covers an area of approximately 1531×104 km2 of appropriate habitat, especially in the south-eastern parts of South, central and North America, Southeast Asia, eastern Australia, and most of Europe. The suitable regions are anticipated to expand under future climate scenarios; however, the dynamics of the changes vary between different extents of climate change. For example, C. caroliniana is expected to expand to higher latitudes, following global temperature increases under SSP1–2.6 and SSP2–4.5 scenarios, however, intolerance to temperature extremes may mediate invasion at higher latitudes under future extreme climate scenarios, e.g., SSP5–8.5. Owing to the severe impacts its invasion causes, early warning and stringent border quarantine processes are required to guard against the introduction of C. caroliniana especially in the invasion hotspots such as, Peru, Italy, and South Korea.