AUTHOR=Zhang Fen-Guo , Zhang Sanqing , Wu Kefan , Zhao Ruxia , Zhao Guanghua , Wang Yongji 

TITLE=Potential habitat areas and priority protected areas of Tilia amurensis Rupr in China under the context of climate change

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=15

YEAR=2024

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2024.1365264

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2024.1365264

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Introduction</title><p><italic>Tilia amurensis Rupr</italic> (<italic>T. amurensis</italic>) is one  endangered  and  national class II key  protected wild plant in China. It has ornamental, material, economic, edible and medicinal  values. At present, the resources of <italic>T. amurensis</italic> are decreasing, and the prediction of the distribution of its potential habitat in China can provide a theoretical basis for the cultivation and rational management of this species.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In this study, the R language was used to evaluate 358 distribution records and 38 environment variables. The MaxEnt model was used to predict the potential distribution areas of  <italic>T. amurensis</italic> under the current and future climate scenarios. The dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of <italic>T. amurensis</italic> were analyzed and  the Marxan model was used  to plan the priority protected areas of this species.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The results showed that Bio18, Slope, Elev, Bio1, Bio9 and Bio2 were the dominant environmental factors affecting the distribution of <italic>T. amurensis</italic>. Under the future climatic scenarios, the potential suitable areas for <italic>T. amurensis</italic> will  mainly distribute in the Northeast China, the total suitable area will reduce compared with the current climate scenarios, and the general trend of the centroid of suitable habitat will be towards higher latitudes. The SPF value of the best plan obtained from the priority conservation area planning was 1.1, the BLM value was 127,616, and the priority conservation area was about 57.61×10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. The results suggested that climate, soil and  topographic factors jointly affected the potential geographical distribution of <italic>T. amurensis</italic>, and climate and topographic factors had greater influence than soil factors.</p></sec><sec><title>Discussion</title><p>The total suitable area of <italic>T. amurensis</italic> in China under different climate scenarios in the future will decrease, so more effective protection should be actively adopted.</p></sec>