AUTHOR=Huang Yumeng , Zhang Guoliang , Fu Weidong , Zhang Yue , Zhao Zihua , Li Zhihong , Qin Yujia 

TITLE=Impacts of climate change on climatically suitable regions of two invasive Erigeron weeds in China

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=14

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2023.1238656

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2023.1238656

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Introduction</title><p><italic>Erigeron philadelphicus</italic> and <italic>Erigeron annuus</italic> are two ecologically destructive invasive plants from the Asteraceae family. Predicting the potential distribution pattern of two invasive alien <italic>Erigeron</italic> weeds can provide a scientific basis for prevent the further spread of these two weeds in China under climate change.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>Based on historical occurrence datasets and environmental variables, we optimized a MaxEnt model to predict the potential suitable habitats of <italic>E. philadelphicus</italic> and <italic>E. annuus</italic>. We also analyzed the shifts of distribution centroids and patterns under climate change scenarios.</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The key variables that affect the potential geographical distribution of <italic>E. annuus</italic> and <italic>E. philadelphicus</italic>, respectively, are temperature seasonality and precipitation of the driest month. Moreover, topsoil sodicity and topsoil salinity also influence the distribution of <italic>E. philadelphicus</italic>. Under climate change, the overall suitable habitats for both invasive alien <italic>Erigeron</italic> weeds are expected to expand. The potential geographical distribution of <italic>E. annuus</italic> exhibited the highest expansion under the SSP245 climate scenario (medium forcing scenarios), whereas <italic>E. philadelphicus</italic> had the highest expansion under the SSP126 climate scenario (lower forcing scenarios) globally. The future centroid of <italic>E. annuus</italic> is projected to shift to higher latitudes specifically from Hubei to Hebei, whereas <italic>E. philadelphicus</italic> remains concentrated primarily in Hubei Province. The overlapping suitable areas of the two invasive alien <italic>Erigeron</italic> plants mainly occur in Jiangsu, Zhejiang, Fujian, Jiangxi, Hunan, Guizhou, and Chongqing, within China.</p></sec><sec><title>Discussion</title><p>Climate change will enable <italic>E. annuus</italic> to expand into northeastern region and invade Yunnan Province whereas <italic>E. philadelphicus</italic> was historically the only  suitable species. <italic>E. annuus</italic> demonstrates a greater potential for invasion and expansion under climate change, as it exhibits higher environmental tolerance. The predictive results obtained in this study can serve as a valuable reference for early warning systems and management strategies aimed at controlling the spread of these two invasive plants.</p></sec>