AUTHOR=Yoon Sunhee , Lee Wang-Hee 

TITLE=Assessing potential European areas of Pierce’s disease mediated by insect vectors by using spatial ensemble model

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=14

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2023.1209694

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2023.1209694

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>Pierce’s disease (PD) is a serious threat to grape production in Europe. This disease is caused by <italic>Xylella fastidiosa</italic> and is mediated by insect vectors, suggesting its high potential for spread and necessity for early monitoring. In this study, hence, potential distribution of Pierce’s disease varied with climate change and was spatially evaluated in Europe using ensemble species distribution modeling. Two models of <italic>X. fastidiosa</italic> and three major insect vectors (<italic>Philaenus spumarius, Neophilaenus campestris</italic>, and <italic>Cicadella viridis)</italic> were developed using CLIMEX and MaxEnt. The consensus areas of the disease and insect vectors, along with host distribution, were evaluated using ensemble mapping to identify high-risk areas for the disease. Our predictions showed that the Mediterranean region would be the most vulnerable to Pierce’s disease, and the high-risk area would increase three-fold due to climate change under the influence of <italic>N. campestris</italic> distribution. This study demonstrated a methodology for species distribution modeling specific to diseases and vectors while providing results that could be used for monitoring Pierce’s disease by simultaneously considering the disease agent, vectors, and host distribution.</p>