AUTHOR=Yang Ming , Zhao Haoxiang , Xian Xiaoqing , Wang Rui , Yang Nianwan , Chen Li , Liu Wan-xue 

TITLE=Assessing risk from invasive alien plants in China: Reconstructing invasion history and estimating distribution patterns of Lolium temulentum and Aegilops tauschii

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=14

YEAR=2023

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2023.1113567

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2023.1113567

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<sec><title>Introduction</title><p>The establishment of invasive alien plants (IAPs) is primarily driven by climate warming and human activities, and their populations have a negative impact on agricultural economics, ecological systems, and human health. <italic>Lolium temulentum</italic> and <italic>Aegilops tauschii</italic> are critical IAPs in China because they reduce the quality of cereal grains and decrease wheat yields. <italic>Lolium temulentum</italic> is a winter-temperate weed that spreads easily and is poisonous to humans and animals. <italic>Aegilops tauschii</italic> is resistant to herbicides, has a high reproductive rate, and frequently grows in wheat. Both species have been listed in the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs of the People’s Republic of China’s management catalog since 2006.</p></sec><sec><title>Methods</title><p>In the present study, the historical occurrence and invasion of each species were collected and reconstructed, which showed that the population outbreak of <italic>L. temulentum</italic> began in 2010, whereas that of <italic>A. tauschii</italic> began in 2000. Using the optimal MaxEnt model, the geographical distributions of <italic>L. temulentum</italic> and <italic>A. tauschii</italic> were predicted based on screened species occurrences and environmental variables under the current and three future scenarios in the 2030s and 2050s (i.e., SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, and SSP5-8.5).</p></sec><sec><title>Results</title><p>The mean AUC values were 0.867 and 0.931 for <italic>L. temulentum</italic> and <italic>A. tauschii</italic>, respectively. Human influence index (HII), mean temperature of coldest quarter (bio11), and precipitation of coldest quarter (bio19) were the most significant variables for <italic>L. temulentum</italic>, whereas human influence index, temperature seasonality (standard deviation×100) (bio4), and annual mean temperature (bio1) were the critical environmental variables for <italic>A. tauschi.</italic> Suitable habitat areas in China for <italic>L. temulentum</italic> and <italic>A. tauschii</italic> currently covered total areas of 125 × 10<sup>4</sup> and 235 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Future suitable areas of <italic>L. temulentum</italic> reached the maximum under SSP2-4.5, from 2021 to 2060, whereas for <italic>A. tauschii</italic> they reached the maximum under SSP5-8.5, from 2021 to 2060. Furthermore, the overlap area under the current climate conditions for <italic>L. temulentum</italic> and <italic>A. tauschii</italic> was approximately 90 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>, mainly located in Hubei, Anhui, Jiangsu, Shandong, Henan, Shaanxi, Shanxi, and Hebei. The overlap areas decreased in the 2030s, increased in the 2050s, and reached a maximum under SSP1-2.6 (or SSP2-4.5) with an approximate area of 104 × 10<sup>4</sup> km<sup>2</sup>. The centroid of <italic>L. temulentum</italic> in Henan was transferred to the southwest, whereas for <italic>A. tauschii</italic> it transferred to higher latitudes in the northeast.</p></sec><sec><title>Discussion</title><p>Our findings provide a practical reference for the early warning, control, and management of these two destructive IAP populations in China.</p></sec>