AUTHOR=Ahmad Aqeel , Liu Yujie 

TITLE=Phenology forcing model to estimate phenology shifting ability of extreme environmental events

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=13

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.961335

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2022.961335

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>The current study considered the climate extreme index (<italic>CEI</italic>) values originated from extreme environmental events (EEEs) by following the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) guidelines. The EEEs were fractionated into six sub-categories (i.e., high temperature, low temperature, high precipitation, low precipitation, drought, and wind), and the combined impact of <italic>CEIs</italic> was utilized to develop an algorithm for the estimation of the phenology sensitivity index (<italic>P</italic><sub><italic>Si</italic></sub>). Finally, the <italic>CEIs</italic>, and the <italic>P</italic><sub><italic>Si</italic></sub> were undergone the development of the phenology forcing (<italic>P<sup>F</sup></italic>) model. The developed model showed a high sensitivity at the <italic>CEI</italic> value of as low as ≥1.0. Furthermore, the uncertainty index varied between 0.03 and 0.07, making a parabolic curvature at increasing <italic>CEIs</italic> (1.0–15.0). The current study precisely estimates the tendency of EEEs for phenology change. It will assist in policy-making and planning crop cultivation plans for achieving sustainable development goal 2 (SDG2) of the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO).</p>