AUTHOR=Ouyang Xianheng , Lin Haiping , Bai Shihao , Chen Jie , Chen Anliang 

TITLE=Simulation the potential distribution of Dendrolimus houi and its hosts, Pinus yunnanensis and Cryptomeria fortunei, under climate change in China

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=13

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.1054710

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2022.1054710

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>Due to climate change, it is significant to explore the impact of rising temperatures on the distribution of <italic>Dendrolimus houi</italic> Lajonquiere (Lepidoptera) and its host plants, <italic>Pinus yunnanensis</italic> and <italic>Cryptomeria fortunei</italic>, and to simulate their suitable future distribution areas in order to provide a theoretical basis for the monitoring of, and early warning about, <italic>D. houi</italic> and the formulation of effective prevention and control policies. Based on the known distribution areas of, and relevant climate data for, <italic>D. houi</italic>, <italic>P. yunnanensis</italic>, and <italic>C. fortunei</italic>, their suitable habitat in China was predicted using the ENMeval data package in order to adjust the maximum entropy (MaxEnt) model parameters. The results showed that the regularization multiplier was 0.5 when the feature combination was LQHPT, with a MaxEnt model of lowest complexity and excellent prediction accuracy. The main climate variable affecting the geographical distribution of <italic>D. houi</italic>, <italic>P. yunnanensis</italic>, and <italic>C. fortunei</italic> is temperature, specifically including isothermality, temperature seasonality, maximum temperature of warmest month, minimum temperature of warmest month, average temperature of coldest quarter. The potential suitable distribution areas for <italic>P. yunnanensis</italic> and <italic>D. houi</italic> were similar under climate change, mainly distributed in southwest China, while <italic>C. fortunei</italic> was mainly distributed in southeast China. Under different future-climate scenarios, the areas suitable for the three species will increase, except for <italic>P. yunnanensis</italic> in the 2070s under Shared Socioeconomic Pathway 5–8.5. With climate change, all three species were found to have a tendency to migrate to higher latitudes and higher altitudes. The centroids of the areas suitable for <italic>P. yunnanensis</italic> and <italic>D. houi</italic> will migrate to the northwest and the centroids of the areas suitable for <italic>C. fortunei</italic> will migrate to the northeast.</p>