AUTHOR=Lian Yuyang , Wang Aqiang , Peng Sihua , Jia Jingjing , Yang Xiaofeng , Li Jinlei , Yang Shuyan , Zheng Rongjiao , Zhou Shihao 

TITLE=Potential global distribution area projections of the aphid Lipaphis erysimi and its predator Eupeodes corollae in the context of climate change

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=13

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2022.1019693

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2022.1019693

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>Climate change affects the population distribution of pests and their natural enemies, and predicting these effects is necessary for pest monitoring and green control. <italic>Lipaphis erysimi</italic> is an important vegetable pest, and its natural enemy, the <italic>Eupeodes corollae</italic> Fabricius has a strong predatory effect on the <italic>L. erysimi</italic>. To assess the spread trends of <italic>L. erysimi</italic> and its natural enemy, the hoverfly, <italic>E. corollae</italic> under current (1970-2000) and future climates (2041-2060), based on the MaxEnt model, this paper uses data on the geographical distribution of the historical occurrence of <italic>L. erysimi</italic> and <italic>E. corollae</italic> to speculate on their potential distribution areas worldwide and analyze the key environmental factors affecting the survival and spread of both. The results showed that the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 2.6 and RCP4.5 climatic conditions are favorable for the spread of <italic>L. erysimi</italic>, the RCP8.5 climatic conditions are unfavorable for the spread of <italic>L. erysimi</italic>, and all three future climatic conditions are unfavorable for the spread of <italic>E. corollae</italic>. The highest fitness of <italic>L. erysimi</italic> was found at the annual average temperature of 18 °C and the annual average precipitation of 900 mm, while the highest fitness of <italic>E. corollae</italic> was found at the annual average temperature of 10 °C and the lowest temperature in the coldest month of 0 °C. This study can provide a reference basis for monitoring and early warning and biological control of <italic>L. erysimi</italic>.</p>