AUTHOR=Jiang Ruiping , Zou Meng , Qin Yu , Tan Guodong , Huang Sipei , Quan Huige , Zhou Jiayu , Liao Hai 

TITLE=Modeling of the Potential Geographical Distribution of Three Fritillaria Species Under Climate Change

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science

VOLUME=12

YEAR=2022

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.749838

DOI=10.3389/fpls.2021.749838

ISSN=1664-462X

ABSTRACT=<p>Fritillaria species, a well-known Chinese traditional medicine for more than 2,000 years, have become rare resources due to excessive harvesting. In order to balance the economical requirement and ecological protection of <italic>Fritillaria</italic> species, it is necessary to determine (1) the important environmental variables that were responsible for the spatial distribution, (2) distribution change in response to climate change in the future, (3) ecological niche overlap between various <italic>Fritillaria</italic> species, and (4) the correlation between spatial distribution and phylogenies as well. In this study, the areas with potential ecological suitability for <italic>Fritillaria cirrhosa</italic>, <italic>Fritillaria unibracteata</italic>, and <italic>Fritillaria przewalskii</italic> were predicted using MaxEnt based on the current occurrence records and bioclimatic variables. The result indicated that precipitation and elevation were the most important environmental variables for the three species. Moreover, the current suitable habitats of <italic>F. cirrhosa</italic>, <italic>F. unibracteata</italic>, and <italic>F. przewalskii</italic> encompassed 681,951, 481,607, and 349,199 km<sup>2</sup>, respectively. Under the scenario of the highest concentration of greenhouse gas emission (SSP585), the whole suitable habitats of <italic>F. cirrhosa</italic> and <italic>F. przewalskii</italic> reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100, while those of <italic>F. unibracteata</italic> reach the maximum from 2021 to 2100 under the scenario of moderate emission (SSP370) from 2021 to 2100. The MaxEnt data were also used to predict the ecological niche overlap, and thus high overlap occurring among three <italic>Fritillaria</italic> species was observed. The niche overlap of three <italic>Fritillaria</italic> species was related to the phylogenetic analysis despite the non-significance (<italic>P</italic> &gt; 0.05), indicating that spatial distribution was one of the factors that contributed to the speciation diversification. Additionally, we predicted species-specific habitats to decrease habitat competition. Overall, the information obtained in this study provided new insight into the potential distribution and ecological niche of three species for the conservation and management in the future.</p>