AUTHOR=Giannini Tereza Cristina , Acosta André Luis , Costa Wilian França , Miranda Leonardo , Pinto Carlos Eduardo , Watanabe Maurício Takashi Coutinho , Zappi Daniela Cristina , Giulietti Ana Maria , Imperatriz-Fonseca Vera Lucia TITLE=Flora of Ferruginous Outcrops Under Climate Change: A Study in the Cangas of Carajás (Eastern Amazon) JOURNAL=Frontiers in Plant Science VOLUME=12 YEAR=2021 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/plant-science/articles/10.3389/fpls.2021.699034 DOI=10.3389/fpls.2021.699034 ISSN=1664-462X ABSTRACT=

Climate change has impacted biodiversity, affecting species and altering their geographical distribution. Besides understanding the impact in the species, it has been advocated that answering if different traits will be differently impacted could allow refined predictions of how climate change will jeopardize biodiversity. Our aim was to evaluate if climate change will potentially impact plant species differently, considering their traits. We evaluated 608 plant species that occur in the naturally open areas of ferruginous outcrops (namely, cangas) in the National Forest of Carajás (Eastern Amazon). Firstly, we estimated the effects of climate change on each species using species distribution modeling, and analyzed this impact in the set containing all species. Secondly, we classified plant species considering the following traits: (i) pollination syndromes (melittophily, phalaenophily, psychophily, cantharophily, entomophily, ornithophily, chiropterophily, anemophily); (ii) habit (tree, shrub, herb, liana, parasite); and (iii) the main habitat of occurrence (open areas and forests). Thirdly, we investigated if the effects of climate change could be significantly more intense considering all the different traits quoted. Our results showed that most plant species will potentially face reduction of suitable habitats under future climate and the scenarios showed that 42% of them may not find suitable areas in the cangas of Carajás. We found no significant difference within each analyzed trait, considering the potential impact of climate change. The most climatically suitable areas (i.e., areas with high probability of species occurrence in the future) are those in the southwest of the study area. These areas can be considered as priority areas for species protection against climate change.