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PERSPECTIVE article
Front. Phys.
Sec. Social Physics
Volume 13 - 2025 |
doi: 10.3389/fphy.2025.1528716
Extreme Events in Armed Conflicts: A Perspective
Provisionally accepted- Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
Armed conflicts are characterized by changes in fatalities that may span different orders of magnitude. A change in fatalities, crossing an order of magnitude, may be accompanied by surprise. The paper suggests estimating the probability of extreme changes in fatality (i.e., surprise) using a physics-informed approach. More specifically, the paper aims to estimate the probability of an unseen event where the increase in the death toll crosses an order of magnitude. The perspective is presented and illustrated with a single case: the postmortem analysis of the October 7, 2023, attack on Israel.
Keywords: Social physics, Armed conflicts, fatalities, surprise, uncertainty
Received: 15 Nov 2024; Accepted: 09 Jan 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Neuman. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yair Neuman, Ben-Gurion University of the Negev, Be'er Sheva, Israel
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