AUTHOR=Capuano Francesco 

TITLE=Modeling Growth, Containment and Decay of the COVID-19 Epidemic in Italy

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Physics

VOLUME=8

YEAR=2020

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physics/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.586180

DOI=10.3389/fphy.2020.586180

ISSN=2296-424X

ABSTRACT=<p>A careful inspection of the cumulative curve of confirmed COVID-19 infections in Italy and in other hard-hit countries reveals three distinct phases: i) an initial exponential growth (unconstrained phase), ii) an algebraic, power-law growth (containment phase), and iii) a relatively slow decay. We propose a parsimonious compartment model based on a time-dependent rate of depletion of the susceptible population that captures all such phases for a plausible range of model parameters. The results suggest an intimate interplay between the growth behavior, the timing and implementation of containment strategies, and the subsequent saturation of the outbreak.</p>