AUTHOR=Lucia Umberto , Deisboeck Thomas S. , Grisolia Giulia 

TITLE=Entropy-Based Pandemics Forecasting

JOURNAL=Frontiers in Physics

VOLUME=8

YEAR=2020

URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/physics/articles/10.3389/fphy.2020.00274

DOI=10.3389/fphy.2020.00274

ISSN=2296-424X

ABSTRACT=<p>A great variety of natural phenomena follows some statistical distributions. In epidemiology, such as for the current COVID 19 outbreak, it is essential to develop reliable predictions of the evolution of an infectious disease. In particular, a statistical projection of the time of maximum diffusion of infected carriers is fundamental in order to prepare healthcare systems and organize a robust public health response. In this paper, we develop a thermodynamic approach based on the infection statistics related to the total citizenry of a country. It represents a novel tool for evaluating the time of maximum diffusion of an epidemic or pandemic.</p>