95% of researchers rate our articles as excellent or good
Learn more about the work of our research integrity team to safeguard the quality of each article we publish.
Find out more
ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Pediatr.
Sec. Pediatric Surgery
Volume 13 - 2025 | doi: 10.3389/fped.2025.1578679
This article is part of the Research Topic Innovations in Pediatric Neurosurgery: Techniques and Outcomes View all 3 articles
Development and Validation of a Nomogram-Based Risk Prediction Model for Unfavorable Outcomes in Pediatric Traumatic Brain Injury: A Retrospective Study
Provisionally accepted
Dehong Fan 1
Yuyan He 1 Meiling Yang 2 Xuebing Lan 2 Dou Lin 1 Wen Zhou 1 Yonghua Lin 1 Yuhui Chen 3* Qi Li 2*
Jinrun Lin 1*- 1 Neurosurgery, Fujian Children's Hospital (Fujian Branch of Shanghai Children's Medical Center), Fuzhou, China
- 2 Neurosurgery, 900 Hospital of the Joint Logistics Team of the Chinese PLA, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China
- 3 Neurosurgery, Fuzong Clinical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
Introduction: Pediatric traumatic brain injury (PTBI) is linked to significant disability and mortality. This study aimed to identify risk factors for unfavorable outcomes in patients with PTBI and develop a predictive risk model. Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on patients with PTBI treated at the 900th Hospital from September 2021 to June 2023. Univariate and multivariate regression analyses identified risk factors for adverse outcomes and facilitated the creation of a nomogram. The model's predictive accuracy was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves, and Decision Curve Analysis (DCA). External validation was performed with patients with PTBI from Fujian Children's Hospital. Results: Key findings indicated that a Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS) score ≤ 8, subdural hematoma, subarachnoid hemorrhage, and coagulopathy were independent risk factors. The nomogram achieved an area under the ROC curve of 0.947 in the development cohort and 0.834 in the external validation cohort, demonstrating a good fit. DCA results confirmed that the nomogram enhanced the prediction of unfavorable outcomes. Conclusions: This risk prediction model offers high accuracy for early identification of adverse outcomes, enabling timely interventions to improve the quality of life for patients with PTBI.
Keywords: Pediatric traumatic brain injury, Unfavorable outcome, Risk factors, predictive model, nomogram
Received: 18 Feb 2025; Accepted: 27 Mar 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Fan, He, Yang, Lan, Lin, Zhou, Lin, Chen, Li and Lin. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yuhui Chen, Neurosurgery, Fuzong Clinical College of Fujian Medical University, Fuzhou, China
Qi Li, Neurosurgery, 900 Hospital of the Joint Logistics Team of the Chinese PLA, Fuzhou, Fujian Province, China
Jinrun Lin, Neurosurgery, Fujian Children's Hospital (Fujian Branch of Shanghai Children's Medical Center), Fuzhou, China
Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.