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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Pediatr.
Sec. Neonatology
Volume 12 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fped.2024.1440437

Construction of a Nomogram Model to Predict the Risk of Retinopathy of Prematurity Reactivate after Intravitreal Anti-Vascular Endothelial Growth Factor Therapy: A Retrospective Study

Provisionally accepted
Ziyun Shen Ziyun Shen 1,2,3Qingfei Hao Qingfei Hao 2,3Tiantian Yang Tiantian Yang 2界杯 Cheng 界杯 Cheng 2*
  • 1 paediatrics, Zhengzhou, China
  • 2 Other, Zhengzhou, China
  • 3 First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University, Zhengzhou, Henan Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Objective: To explore the risk factors for the reactivate of retinopathy of prematurity (ROP) after intravitreal injection of anti-vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) and to construct a nomogram model to predict the risk of ROP reactivate.A retrospective analysis was conducted on 185 ROP children who underwent anti-VEGF treatment at the First Affiliated Hospital of Zhengzhou University from January 2017 to October 2023. They were randomly divided into a training set (129 cases) and a validation set (56 cases) at a ratio of 7:3. The training set was further divided into a reactivate group (n=18) and a non-reactivate group (n=111) based on whether ROP recurred after treatment. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was used to screen for risk factors for ROP reactivate. A nomogram model was constructed using R software and validated using the validation set. The discrimination, calibration, and clinical net benefit of the model were evaluated using the receiver operating characteristic curve (ROC curve), calibration curve, and decision curve analysis, respectively.Results: Multivariable logistic regression analysis showed that the number of red blood cell transfusions, use of pulmonary surfactant (PS) 2 times or more, and preoperative fundus hemorrhage were independent risk factors for ROP reactivate (P<0.05). The area under the ROC curve (AUC) of the training set was 0.810 (95% CI: 0.706-0.914), and that of the validation set was 0.756 (95% CI: 0.639-0.873). The Hosmer-Leme show goodness-of-fit test indicated a good fit of the model (P=0.31).Calibration curve analysis and decision curve analysis suggested high predictive efficacy and clinical application value of the model. Conclusions: The number of red blood cell transfusions, use of PS 2 times or more, and preoperative fundus hemorrhage are independent risk factors for ROP reactivate. The nomogram model constructed based on these factors has high predictive efficacy and clinical application value.

    Keywords: Anti-vascular endothelial growth factor, Retinopathy of Prematurity, Reactivate, nomogram, preterm

    Received: 29 May 2024; Accepted: 24 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Shen, Hao, Yang and Cheng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: 界杯 Cheng, Other, Zhengzhou, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.