Ultrasound Characteristics Comparison and Development of a Predictive Nomogram for Intraductal Papilloma and Ductal Carcinoma In Situ: A Retrospective Cohort Study

Liyang SuQiaojie XieAling YiQingquan ZhangJinzhen Chen^*

• Quanzhou First Hospital, Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China

Background: Intraductal Papilloma (IDP) and Ductal Carcinoma In Situ (DCIS) are significant benign and pre-invasive breast lesions, respectively. This study aimed to investigate ultrasound features and develop a predictive nomogram for discriminating between IDP and DCIS.Methods: Conducted at Quanzhou First Hospital over a three-year period, 389 patients were enrolled with detailed ultrasound examinations and confirmed pathological diagnoses. IDP was classified into Grade 3, 4, and 5, whereas DCIS presented as a mass-like morphology. Patients meeting inclusion criteria underwent rigorous analysis, with exclusion criteria eliminating those with incomplete imaging data or confounding comorbidities. Ultrasound characteristics, including lesion size, shape, margin, and echogenicity, etc., were systematically evaluated and compared between the two groups. Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify significant risk factors. Subsequently, based on these characteristics, both static and dynamic nomograms were developed. The performance of the nomograms was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), calibration plots, and decision curve analysis (DCA).The study cohort included 272 patients in the training set and 117 in the validation set. Significant differences were observed between IDP and DCIS in age, size, shape, aspect ratio, margin, duct dilatation, and microcalcification (P < 0.05).identified age, size, aspect ratio, margin, microcalcification, and duct dilatation as independent risk factors. Compared to DCIS, IDP is associated with younger age, smaller size, clearer margins, fewer microcalcifications, and more ductal dilation. The performance of the nomogram developed to predict IDP and DCIS showed an AUC of 0.918 in the training set and 0.888 in the validation set. The calibration curve indicates a strong fit of the predictive model in the validation set, with the Hosmer-Lemeshow test showing high consistency between predicted and actual probabilities (training set, P = 0.875; validation set, P = 0.751). Additionally, DCA confirms the clinical utility of the model.The nomogram incorporating key predictors provides a valuable tool for differentiating between IDP and DCIS based on ultrasound characteristics. This approach aids in clinical decision-making and potentially reduces unnecessary biopsies.