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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Oncol.
Sec. Cancer Epidemiology and Prevention
Volume 14 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1451589
This article is part of the Research Topic Advances in the Management of Lung Cancer: From the Bench to the Bedside and Back View all 7 articles

Lung cancer incidence and mortality in trend and prediction between 2012-2030 in Shandong Province, using a Bayesian age-period-cohort model

Provisionally accepted
Fan Jiang Fan Jiang 1*Zhentao Fu Zhentao Fu 1Jie Chu Jie Chu 1Jie Ren Jie Ren 1Chunxiao Xu Chunxiao Xu 1Xiaohui Xu Xiaohui Xu 1Xiaolei Guo Xiaolei Guo 1Zilong Lu Zilong Lu 1Aiqiang Xu Aiqiang Xu 2
  • 1 Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong, China
  • 2 Shandong University, Jinan, Shandong Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Objectives: Lung cancer is one of the most common cancers in Shandong Province, China. Projecting future cancer trend is crucial for planning cancer control. We aimed to examine the trend of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023, and predict the lung cancer burden to 2030 in Shandong. Methods: Data of lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2012 to 2023 were obtained from the Shandong Cancer Registries. The average annual percentage change (AAPC) was used to quantify the trend of the lung cancer age-standardised rate using Joinpoint software. Bayesian age-period-cohort model was used to predict lung cancer incidence and mortality from 2024 to 2030. Results: The age-standardised incidence rate (ASIR) remained stable from 2012 to 2023. The ASIR in males decreased with an AAPC of -1.350%, while the ASIR in females increased with an AAPC of 2.429%. The age-standardised mortality rate (ASMR) decreased with an AAPC of -2.911%. This trend was also observed in males (AAPC=-2.513%), females (AAPC=-3.632%), urban areas (AAPC=-3.267%) and rural areas (AAPC=-2.603%). For our predictions, the ASIR will increase to 49.21 per 100,000 until 2030, with an AAPC of 1.873%. This upward trend is expected for females and urban areas, with an AAPC of 4.496% and 4.176%, while it is not observed for males and rural areas. The ASMR is expected to remain stable up to 2030, and this trend will maintain both in males and females. The ASMR will exhibit an upward trend (AAPC=1.100%) in urban areas and a downward trend (AAPC=-0.915%) in rural areas. Conclusion: The ASIR of lung cancer will increase until 2030, while the ASMR of lung cancer is expected to remain stable in Shandong. It is necessary to take further preventive measures such as strengthening tobacco control, enhancing health education and expanding screening efforts.

    Keywords: lung cancer, Incidence, Mortality, prediction, Shandong

    Received: 19 Jun 2024; Accepted: 19 Nov 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Jiang, Fu, Chu, Ren, Xu, Xu, Guo, Lu and Xu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Fan Jiang, Shandong Center for Disease Control and Prevention, Shandong, 16992, China

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