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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Oncol.
Sec. Cancer Imaging and Image-directed Interventions
Volume 14 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1429790

Development of a Prognostic Nomogram for Esophageal Squamous Cell Carcinoma Patients Received Radiotherapy Based on Clinical Risk Factors

Provisionally accepted
Yang Li Yang Li 1Xian Shao Xian Shao 2Li-Juan Dai Li-Juan Dai 1Meng Yu Meng Yu 3Mengdi Cong Mengdi Cong 4Junyi Sun Junyi Sun 5Shuo Pan Shuo Pan 1Gaofeng Shi Gaofeng Shi 1Andu Zhang Andu Zhang 1*Hui Liu Hui Liu 1
  • 1 Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China
  • 2 Fourth Hospital of Shijiazhuang, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
  • 3 Second Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
  • 4 Hebei Provincial Children's Hospital, Shijiazhuang, Hebei Province, China
  • 5 First Hospital of Qinhuangdao, Qinhuangdao, Hebei Province, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The goal of the study was to create a nomogram based on clinical risk factors to forecast the rate of locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS) in patients with esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) who underwent radiotherapy (RT).In this study, 574 ESCC patients were selected as participants. Following radiotherapy, subjects were divided into training and validation groups at a 7:3 ratio. The nomogram was established in the training group using Cox regression. Performance validation was conducted in the validation group, assessing predictability through the C-index and AUC curve, calibration via the Hosmer-Lemeshow (H-L) test, and evaluating clinical applicability using decision curve analysis (DCA).Results T stage, N stage, gross tumor volume (GTV) dose, location, maximal wall thickness (MWT) after RT, node size (NS) after RT, ∆ computer tomography (CT) value, and chemotherapy were found to be independent risk factors that impacted LRFS by multivariate cox analysis, and the findings could be utilized to create a nomogram and forecast LRFS. the area under the receiver operating characteristic (AUC) curve and C-index show that for training and validation groups, the prediction result of LRFS using nomogram was more accurate than that of TNM. The LRFS in both groups was consistent with the nomogram according to the H-L test. The DCA curve demonstrated that the nomogram had a good prediction effect both in the groups for training and validation. The nomogram was used to assign ESCC patients to three risk levels: low, medium, or high. There were substantial variations in LRFS between risk categories in both the training and validation groups (p<0.001, p=0.003).For ESCC patients who received radiotherapy, the nomogram based on clinical risk factors could reliably predict the LRFS.

    Keywords: Carcinoma, Squamous Cell, Esophageal Neoplasms, Radiotherapy, Locoregional recurrence-free survival, nomogram

    Received: 08 May 2024; Accepted: 29 Jul 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Li, Shao, Dai, Yu, Cong, Sun, Pan, Shi, Zhang and Liu. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Andu Zhang, Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University, Shijiazhuang, China

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