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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Oncol.
Sec. Radiation Oncology
Volume 14 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fonc.2024.1398922
This article is part of the Research Topic Radioresistance in Breast Cancer View all 8 articles

A nomogram with Nottingham prognostic index for predicting locoregional recurrence in breast cancer patients

Provisionally accepted
Jianqing Zheng Jianqing Zheng 1*Bingwei Zeng Bingwei Zeng 1Bifen Huang Bifen Huang 2Min Wu Min Wu 1Lihua Xiao Lihua Xiao 1Li Jiancheng Li Jiancheng 3
  • 1 The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China
  • 2 Department of Obstetrics and Gynecology, Quanzhou Medical College People’s Hospital Affiliated, Quanzhou, Fujian Province, China
  • 3 School of Oncology Clinical Medicine, Fujian Medical University, Fujian Provincial Cancer Hospital, Fujian, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    The Nottingham prognostic index (NPI) has been shown to negatively impact survival in breast cancer (BC). However, its ability to predict the locoregional recurrence (LRR) of BC remains still unclear. This study aims to determine whether a higher NPI serves as a significant predictor of LRR in BC.In total, 238 patients with BC were included in this analysis, and relevant clinicopathological features were collected. Correlation analysis was performed between NPI scores and clinicopathological characteristics. The optimal nomogram model was determined by Akaike information criterion. The accuracy of the model's predictions was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic curves (ROC curves), calibration curves and goodness of fit tests. The clinical application value was assessed through decision curve analysis.Results: Six significant variables were identified, including age, body mass index (BMI), TNM stage, NPI, vascular invasion, perineural invasion (P<0.05). Two prediction models, namely a TNM-stagebased model and an NPI-based model, were constructed. The area under the curve (AUC) for the TNMstage-and NPI-based models were 0.843 (0.785,0.901) and 0.830 (0.766,0.893) in training set and 0.649 (0.520,0.778) and 0.728 (0.610,0.846) in validation set, respectively. Both models exhibited good calibration and goodness of fit. The F-measures were 0.761vs 0.756 and 0.556 vs 0.696, respectively. Clinical decision curve analysis showed that both models provided clinical benefits in evaluating risk judgments based on the nomogram model.Conclusions: a higher NPI is an independent risk factor for predicting LRR in BC. The nomogram model based on NPI demonstrates good discrimination and calibration, offering potential clinical benefits. Therefore, it merits widespread adoption and application.

    Keywords: Nottingham prognostic index, Primary breast cancer, Locoregional recurrence, Prediction model, prognostic analysis

    Received: 11 Mar 2024; Accepted: 28 Aug 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Zheng, Zeng, Huang, Wu, Xiao and Jiancheng. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: Jianqing Zheng, The Second Affiliated Hospital of Fujian Medical University, Quanzhou, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.