We tried to establish the normal tissue complication probability (NTCP) model of temporal lobe injury of recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients after two courses of intensity modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) to provide more reliable dose-volume data reference to set the temporal lobe tolerance dose for recurrent NPC patients in the future.
Recurrent NPC patients were randomly divided into training data set and validation data set in a ratio of 2:1, All the temporal lobes (TLs) were re-contoured as R/L structures and named separately in the MIM system. The dose distribution of the initial IMRT plan was deformed into the second course planning CT via MIM software to get the deformed dose. Equivalent dose of TLs in 2Gy fractions was calculated via linear quadratic model, using an α/β=3 for temporal lobes. NTCP model that correlated the irradiated volume of the temporal lobe and? the clinical variables were evaluated in a multivariate prediction model using AUC analysis.
From Jan. 2010 to Dec. 2020, 78 patients were enrolled into our study. Among which 26 (33.3%) developed TLI. The most important factors affecting TLI was the sum-dose d1.5cc of TL, while the possible clinical factors did not reach statistically significant differences in multivariate analysis. According to NTCP model, the TD5 and TD50 EQD2 dose of sum-dose d1.5cc were 65.26Gy (46.72–80.69Gy) and 125.25Gy (89.51–152.18Gy), respectively. For the accumulated EQD2 dose, the area under ROC shadow was 0.8702 (0.7577–0.9828) in model validation, p<0.001.
In this study, a NTCP model of temporal lobe injury after a second course of IMRT for recurrent nasopharyngeal carcinoma was established. TD5 and TD50 doses of temporal lobe injury after re-RT were obtained according to the model, and the model was verified by validation set data.