Colorectal cancer is one of the most common primary malignancies and the third most common cause of cancer death in both men and women in the United States. Among people diagnosed with initial colorectal cancer, 22% had metastatic colorectal cancer, while the 5-year survival rate was less than 20%. The purpose of this study is to develop a nomogram for predicting distant metastasis in newly diagnosed colorectal cancer patients and to identify high-risk groups.
We retrospectively reviewed the data of patients who were diagnosed with colorectal cancer at Zhong nan Hospital of Wuhan University and People’s Hospital of Gansu Province between January 2016 and December 2021. Risk predictors for distant metastasis from colorectal patients were determined by the univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses. Nomograms were developed to predict the probabilities of distant metastatic sites of colorectal cancer patients and evaluated by calibration curves, receiver operating characteristic curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA).
A total of 327 cases were included in this study: 224 colorectal cancer patients from Zhong nan Hospital of Wuhan University were incorporated into the training set, and 103 colorectal cancer patients from Gansu Provincial People’s Hospital were incorporated into the testing set. By univariate logistic regression analysis, platelet (PLT) level (
The nomogram showed excellent accuracy in predicting distant metastatic sites, and clinical utility may facilitate clinical decision-making.