High-risk prostate cancer (PCa) is often treated by prostate-only radiotherapy (PORT) owing to its favourable toxicity profile compared to whole-pelvic radiotherapy. Unfortunately, more than 50% patients still developed disease progression following PORT. Conventional clinical factors may be unable to identify at-risk subgroups in the era of precision medicine. In this study, we aimed to investigate the prognostic value of pre-treatment planning computed tomography (pCT)-based radiomic features and clinical attributes to predict 5-year progression-free survival (PFS) in high-risk PCa patients following PORT.
A total of 176 biopsy-confirmed PCa patients who were treated at the Hong Kong Princess Margaret Hospital were retrospectively screened for eligibility. Clinical data and pCT of one hundred eligible high-risk PCa patients were analysed. Radiomic features were extracted from the gross-tumour-volume (GTV) with and without applying Laplacian-of-Gaussian (LoG) filter. The entire patient cohort was temporally stratified into a training and an independent validation cohort in a ratio of 3:1. Radiomics (R), clinical (C) and radiomic-clinical (RC) combined models were developed by Ridge regression through 5-fold cross-validation with 100 iterations on the training cohort. A model score was calculated for each model based on the included features. Model classification performance on 5-year PFS was evaluated in the independent validation cohort by average area-under-curve (AUC) of receiver-operating-characteristics (ROC) curve and precision-recall curve (PRC). Delong’s test was used for model comparison.
The RC combined model which contains 6 predictive features (tumour flatness, root-mean-square on fine LoG-filtered image, prostate-specific antigen serum concentration, Gleason score, Roach score and GTV volume) was the best-performing model (AUC = 0.797, 95%CI = 0.768-0.826), which significantly outperformed the R-model (AUC = 0.795, 95%CI = 0.774-0.816) and C-model (AUC = 0.625, 95%CI = 0.585-0.665) in the independent validation cohort. Besides, only the RC model score significantly classified patients in both cohorts into progression and progression-free groups regarding their 5-year PFS (p< 0.05).
Combining pCT-based radiomic and clinical attributes provided superior prognostication value regarding 5-year PFS in high-risk PCa patients following PORT. A large multi-centre study will potentially aid clinicians in implementing personalised treatment for this vulnerable subgroup in the future.