This study aimed to develop prognostic prediction models for patients with Siewert type II/III adenocarcinoma of the esophagogastric junction (AEG) who received neoadjuvant therapy (neoadjuvant chemoradiotherapy or neoadjuvant chemotherapy) and radical surgery. A baseline nomogram and a post-operative nomogram were constructed before neoadjuvant therapy and after surgery. The predictive performance of the constructed nomograms was internally validated and compared to the TNM staging system.
A total of 245 patients diagnosed with Siewert type II/III AEG and treated with neoadjuvant therapy followed by radical surgery at The Fourth Hospital of Hebei Medical University between January 2011 and December 2017 were enrolled. The variables before neoadjuvant therapy were defined as baseline factors, while the variables of baseline factors along with the variables of treatment and postoperative pathology were defined as post-operative factors. To construct the corresponding nomograms, independent predictors of baseline and post-operative factors were identified. The C-index and a time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve were used to evaluate the model’s discrimination ability. The calibration ability of the model was determined by comparing the probability of predicted free-recurrence to the actual free-recurrence. Decision curve analysis (DCA) was used to determine the clinical usefulness of the nomogram.
Among the baseline factors, age, cT stage, cN stage, Borrmann type, and staging laparoscopy were independent prognostic predictors. In contrast, among the post-operative factors, age, cN stage, staging laparoscopy, ypT stage, clinical response, number of positive lymph nodes, number of negative lymph nodes, laurén classification, and lymphatic, or perineural invasion (VELPI) were independent prognostic predictors. The two nomograms were constructed using the independent predictors of prognosis. The C-indexes for the baseline and post-operative nomograms were 0.690 (95% CI, 0.644-0.736) and 0.817 (95% CI, 0.782-0.853), respectively. The AUCs of the baseline nomogram at 3 and 5 years were both greater than cTNM (73.1 vs 58.8, 76.1 vs 55.7). Similarly, the AUCs of the post-operative nomogram were both greater than ypTNM (85.2 vs 69.1, 88.2 vs 71.3) at 3 and 5 years. The calibration curves indicated that both models had a high degree of calibration ability. By comparing the DCA at 3 and 5 years, we determined that the two nomograms constructed had better clinical utility than the TNM staging system.
The constructed nomograms have a more accurate predictive ability than the eighth edition TNM staging system, which can be useful for treatment selection and follow-up monitoring of patients.