The chances of second surgery due to positive margins in patients receiving breast-conversing surgery (BCS) were about 20-40%. This study aims to develop and validate a nomogram to predict the status of breast-conserving margins.
The database identified patients with core needle biopsy-proven ductal carcinoma
The final multivariate regression model was developed as a nomogram, including blood flow signals (OR = 2.88, p = 0.001), grade (OR = 2.46, p = 0.002), microcalcifications (OR = 2.39, p = 0.003), tumor size in ultrasound (OR = 2.12, p = 0.011) and cerbB-2 status (OR = 1.99, p = 0.042). C-indices were calculated of 0.71 (95% CI: 0.64-0.78) and 0.68 (95% CI: 0.59-0.78) for the modeling and the validation group, respectively. The calibration of the model was considered adequate in the validation group (p > 0.05).
We developed a nomogram that enables the estimation of the preoperative risk of positive BCS margins. Our nomogram provides a valuable tool for identifying high-risk patients who might have to undergo a wider excision.