For patients with colorectal cancer liver metastases (CRLMs), it is important to stratify patients according to the risk of recurrence. This study aimed to validate the predictive value of some clinical, imaging, and pathology biomarkers and develop an operational prognostic model for patients with CRLMs with neoadjuvant chemotherapy (NACT) before the liver resection.
Patients with CRLMs accompanied with primary lesion and liver metastases lesion resection were enrolled into this study. A nomogram based on independent risk factors was identified by Kaplan–Meier analysis and multivariate Cox proportional hazard analysis. The predictive ability was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Calibration plot were also used to explore the consistency between prediction and reality.
A total of 118 patients were enrolled into the study. Multivariable Cox analysis found that histopathological growth patterns (HGPs) [Hazard Rate (HR) = 2.130], radiology response (stable disease vs. partial response, HR = 2.207; progressive disease vs. partial response, HR = 3.824), lymph node status (HR = 1.442), and age (HR = 0.576) were independent risk factors for disease-free survival (DFS) (
Our model is concise, comprehensive, and high efficient, which may contribute to better predicting the prognosis of patients with CRLMs with NACT before the liver resection. In addition, we observed an unbalanced distribution of HGPs as well.