Immune checkpoint inhibitors (ICIs) have revolutionized metastatic melanoma (MM) treatment in just a few years. Ultraviolet (UV) in sunlight is the most significant environmental cause of melanoma, which is considered to be the main reason for tumor mutation burden (TMB) increase in melanoma. High TMB usually predicts that PD-1 inhibitors are effective. The sunlight exposure pattern of MM might be a clinical feature that matches TMB. The relationship between sunlight exposure patterns and immunotherapy response in MM is unclear. This study aims to investigate the correlation between sunlight exposure patterns and immunotherapy response in MM and establish nomograms that predict 3- and 5-year overall survival (OS) rate.
We searched the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database and enrolled MM cases from 2005-2016. According to the advent of ICIs in 2011, the era was divided into the non-ICIs era (2005-2010) and the ICIs era (2011-2016). Patients were divided into three cohorts according to the primary site sunlight exposure patterns: head and neck in the first cohort, trunk arms and legs in the second cohort, and acral sites in the third cohort. We compared survival differences for each cohort between the two eras, performed stratified analysis, established nomograms for predicting 3- and 5-year OS rate, and performed internal validation.
Comparing the survival difference between the ICIs and non-ICIs era, head and neck melanoma showed the greatest improvement in survival, with 3- and 5-year OS rate increasing by 10.2% and 9.1%, respectively (P=0.00011). In trunk arms and legs melanoma, the 3- and 5-year OS rate increased by 4.6% and 3.9%, respectively (P<0.0001). There is no improvement in survival in acral melanoma (AM) between the two eras (P=0.78). The receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, area under the ROC curve (AUC) and calibration graphs show good discrimination and accuracy of nomograms. Decision curve analysis (DCA) suggests good clinical utility of nomograms.
Based on the classification of sunlight exposure patterns, there is a gradient difference in immunotherapy efficacy for MM. The degree of sunlight exposure is positively correlated with immunotherapy response. The nomograms are sufficiently accurate to predict 3- and 5-year OS rate for MM, allowing for individualized clinical decisions for future clinical work.