This study aimed to identify preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI features and establish a nomogram for predicting early recurrence (≤ 2 years) of hepatocellular carcinoma (HCC) after ablation therapy.
A total of 160 patients who underwent gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI and ablation HCC therapy from January 2015 to June 2018, were included retrospectively and divided into a training cohort (n = 112) and a validation cohort (n = 48). Independent clinical risk factors and gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI features associated with early recurrence were identified by univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis and used for construction of a nomogram. The performance of the nomogram was evaluated by discrimination, calibration, and clinical utility.
Alpha-fetoprotein (AFP) level, tumor number, arterial peritumoral enhancement, satellite nodule and peritumoral hypointensity at hepatobiliary phases in the training cohort were identified as independent risk factors for early recurrence after ablation. A new nomogram that was constructed with these five features showed an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.843 (95%CI 0.771-0.916) and 0.835 (95%CI 0.713-0.956) in the training and validation cohort, respectively. The calibration curve and decision curve analysis (DCA) suggested that the nomogram had good consistency and clinical utility.
A new nomogram that was constructed using four preoperative gadoxetic acid-enhanced MRI features and serum AFP level can predict the risk of early HCC recurrence after ablation therapy with AUC up to 0.843. The strong performance of this nomogram may help hepatologists to categorize patients’ recurrent risk to guide selecting treatment options and improve postoperative management.