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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article
Front. Neurol.
Sec. Stroke
Volume 16 - 2025 |
doi: 10.3389/fneur.2025.1526524
Analysis of the burden of intracerebral hemorrhage in the Asian population aged 45 and older and ARIMA model prediction trends: A systematic study based on the GBD 2021
Provisionally accepted- 1 Department of Neurosurgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China
- 2 Department of Neurosurgery, General Hospital of Fushun Mining Bureau, Fushun, China
Intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH), a severe subtype of hemorrhagic stroke, is associated with significant disability and high mortality rates. Due to population aging and the prevalence of hypertension in the Asian region, intracerebral hemorrhage has become one of the major causes of high disability and mortality. This study analyzes the epidemiological patterns of ICH across Asia from 1990 to 2021 and projects potential trends for the period 2022 to 2041. Methods This study extracted four key indicators related to intracerebral hemorrhage (ICH) from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database for the years 1990 to 2021: prevalence, incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs). The age-period-cohort model was employed to assess the impact of age, time periods, and birth cohorts on ICH trends. Additionally, the autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model was utilized to conduct long-term trend analysis and forecast the changing trends of various indicators from 2022 to 2041.From 1990 to 2021, age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate (ASDR) of ICH in Asia exhibited an overall declining trend, the ASIR declined from 82.
Keywords: intracerebral hemorrhage, The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study, Age-standardized incidence rate, Age-standardized mortality rate, Age-standardized disability-adjusted life-year rate
Received: 11 Nov 2024; Accepted: 31 Jan 2025.
Copyright: © 2025 Xu, Tang, Shen, Zhang and Bao. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.
* Correspondence:
Yongkai Shen, Department of Neurosurgery, General Hospital of Fushun Mining Bureau, Fushun, China
Yinan Zhang, Department of Neurosurgery, General Hospital of Fushun Mining Bureau, Fushun, China
Long Bao, Department of Neurosurgery, First Affiliated Hospital of Jinzhou Medical University, Jinzhou, China
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