Risk factors analysis and nomograph model construction of unplanned readmission for ischemic stroke within 31 days in Wenzhou

Zhili Jin ^* Yingying Ma Yi Xianqiong Xinxin Ye

• Wenzhou, Wenzhou TCM Hosptial of Zhejiang Chinese Medical University, China

[Abstract] Objective To investigate independent risk factors for unplanned readmission of ischemic stroke patients within 31 days in Wenzhou, and establish a nomogram model for risk prediction . Methods A total of 3035 patients with ischemic stroke were randomly grouped(in an 8:2 ratio) into 2428 training set and 607validation set. Independent sample t-test，pearson chisquare test ,fisher’s exact and multivariate logistic regression analysis were used to determine the factors associated with 31-day unplanned readmission in ischemic stroke,and the nomogram was established and validated. Results 669 patients (22.04%) had unplanned readmission. Atrial fibrillation , smoking,education of junior highschool and below , length of stay>16days, Hcy,and UA were independent risk factors for 31-day unplanned readmission in patients with ischemic stroke. The training set (AUC=0.883 (95%CI =0.867-0.899)) and validation set (AUC=0.817(95%CI=0.777-0.858)), and the calibration curve closely resembled the ideal curve, demonstrating good agreement between the predicted and actual values, it shows that the prediction model has a good degree of differentiation and calibration. At the same time, the decision curve shows that the model has a high clinical net benefit rate. Conclusion The nomograph model establishmented in this study to predict the risk of unplanned readmission of ischemic stroke patients within 31 days has good prediction ability.