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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Neurol.
Sec. Stroke
Volume 15 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fneur.2024.1507082
This article is part of the Research Topic Intracranial aneurysms, AVM and other vascular malformations, and connective tissue disorders as potential causes of stroke: Advances in diagnosis and therapeutics including novel neurosurgical techniques View all 13 articles

Enhancing Intracranial Aneurysm Rupture Risk Prediction with a Novel Multivariable Logistic Regression Model Incorporating High-Resolution Vessel Wall Imaging

Provisionally accepted
Zihang Wang Zihang Wang Chang Yan Chang Yan Wenqing Yuan Wenqing Yuan Shuangyan Jiang Shuangyan Jiang Yongxiang Jiang Yongxiang Jiang *Ting Chen Ting Chen *
  • Department of Radiology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University., No.74 Linjiang Rd, Yuzhong District, 400010, Chongqing, China

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Objective: This study aimed to develop and validate a multivariate logistic regression model for predicting intracranial aneurysm (IA) rupture by integrating clinical data, aneurysm morphology, and parent artery characteristics using high-resolution vessel wall imaging (HR-VWI).Methods: A retrospective analysis was conducted on 298 patients with 386 aneurysms. Patients were randomly divided into training (n = 308) and validation (n = 78) sets. Key predictors, including aneurysm size, shape, aneurysm wall and parent artery wall enhancement, were identified through univariate analysis and then used to build the prediction model using multivariate logistic regression.The model was visualized as a nomogram and compared to PHASES and ELAPSS scores.The logistic regression model demonstrated superior predictive performance with an area under the curve of 0.814, which was significantly higher than PHASES and ELAPSS scores (P < 0.05). The model revealed strong calibration and good agreement between predicted and observed rupture probabilities.The multivariate model based on HR-VWI, which incorporates aneurysm and parent artery features, provides a more accurate prediction of IA rupture risk than conventional scoring systems, offering a valuable tool for clinical decision-making.

    Keywords: Intracranial Aneurysm, Parent artery, HR-VWI, PHASES score, ELAPSS score Intracranial aneurysm, ELAPSS score

    Received: 07 Oct 2024; Accepted: 13 Dec 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Wang, Yan, Yuan, Jiang, Jiang and Chen. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence:
    Yongxiang Jiang, Department of Radiology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University., No.74 Linjiang Rd, Yuzhong District, 400010, Chongqing, China
    Ting Chen, Department of Radiology, the Second Affiliated Hospital of Chongqing Medical University., No.74 Linjiang Rd, Yuzhong District, 400010, Chongqing, China

    Disclaimer: All claims expressed in this article are solely those of the authors and do not necessarily represent those of their affiliated organizations, or those of the publisher, the editors and the reviewers. Any product that may be evaluated in this article or claim that may be made by its manufacturer is not guaranteed or endorsed by the publisher.