Non-valvular atrial fibrillation (NVAF) is the most common cause of cardiogenic cerebral embolism (CCE). However, the underlying mechanism between cerebral embolism and NVAF is indefinite, and there is no effective and convenient biomarker to identify potential risk of CCE in patients with NVAF in clinic. The present study aims to identify risk factors for interpreting the potential association of CCE with NVAF and providing valuable biomarkers to predict the risk of CCE for NVAF patients.
641 NVAF patients diagnosed with CCE and 284 NVAF patients without any history of stroke were recruited in the present study. Clinical data including demographic characteristics, medical history, and clinical assessments, were recorded. Meanwhile, Blood cell counts, lipid profiles, high-sensitivity C-reactive protein, and coagulation function-related indicators were measured. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression analysis was utilized to build a composite indicator model based on the blood risk factors.
(1) CCE patients had significantly increased neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio (PLR), and D-dimer levels as compared with patients in the NVAF group, and these three indicators can distinguish CCE patients from ones in the NVAF group with an area under the curve (AUC) value of over 0.750, respectively. (2) Using the LASSO model, a composite indicator, i.e., the risk score, was determined based on PLR and D-dimer and displayed differential power for distinguishing CCE patients from NVAF patients with an AUC value of over 0.934. (3) The risk score was positively correlated with the National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale and CHADS2 scores in CCE patients. (4) There was a significant association between the change value of the risk score and the recurrence time of stroke in initial CCE patients.
The PLR and D-dimer represent an aggravated process of inflammation and thrombosis in the occurrence of CCE after NVAF. The combination of these two risk factors can contribute to identifying the risk of CCE for patients with NVAF with an accuracy of 93.4%, and the greater in change of composite indicator, the shorter in the recurrence of CCE for NVAF patients.