AUTHOR=Wang Liang , Du Lei , Li Qinying , Li Fang , Wang Bei , Zhao Yuanqi , Meng Qiang , Li Wenyu , Pan Juyuan , Xia Junhui , Wu Shitao , Yang Jie , Li Heng , Ma Jianhua , ZhangBao Jingzi , Huang Wenjuan , Chang Xuechun , Tan Hongmei , Yu Jian , Zhou Lei , Lu Chuanzhen , Wang Min , Dong Qiang , Lu Jiahong , Zhao Chongbo , Quan Chao TITLE=Deep learning-based relapse prediction of neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder with anti-aquaporin-4 antibody JOURNAL=Frontiers in Neurology VOLUME=13 YEAR=2022 URL=https://www.frontiersin.org/journals/neurology/articles/10.3389/fneur.2022.947974 DOI=10.3389/fneur.2022.947974 ISSN=1664-2295 ABSTRACT=Objective

We previously identified the independent predictors of recurrent relapse in neuromyelitis optica spectrum disorder (NMOSD) with anti-aquaporin-4 antibody (AQP4-ab) and designed a nomogram to estimate the 1- and 2-year relapse-free probability, using the Cox proportional hazard (Cox-PH) model, assuming that the risk of relapse had a linear correlation with clinical variables. However, whether the linear assumption fits real disease tragedy is unknown. We aimed to employ deep learning and machine learning to develop a novel prediction model of relapse in patients with NMOSD and compare the performance with the conventional Cox-PH model.

Methods

This retrospective cohort study included patients with NMOSD with AQP4-ab in 10 study centers. In this study, 1,135 treatment episodes from 358 patients in Huashan Hospital were employed as the training set while 213 treatment episodes from 92 patients in nine other research centers as the validation set. We compared five models with added variables of gender, AQP4-ab titer, previous attack under the same therapy, EDSS score at treatment initiation, maintenance therapy, age at treatment initiation, disease duration, the phenotype of the most recent attack, and annualized relapse rate (ARR) of the most recent year by concordance index (C-index): conventional Cox-PH, random survival forest (RSF), LogisticHazard, DeepHit, and DeepSurv.

Results

When including all variables, RSF outperformed the C-index in the training set (0.739), followed by DeepHit (0.737), LogisticHazard (0.722), DeepSurv (0.698), and Cox-PH (0.679) models. As for the validation set, the C-index of LogisticHazard outperformed the other models (0.718), followed by DeepHit (0.704), DeepSurv (0.698), RSF (0.685), and Cox-PH (0.651) models. Maintenance therapy was calculated to be the most important variable for relapse prediction.

Conclusion

This study confirmed the superiority of deep learning to design a prediction model of relapse in patients with AQP4-ab-positive NMOSD, with the LogisticHazard model showing the best predictive power in validation.