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ORIGINAL RESEARCH article

Front. Nephrol.
Sec. Blood Purification
Volume 4 - 2024 | doi: 10.3389/fneph.2024.1458607

Inside CKD: A Microsimulation Modelling Study Projects the Clinical and Economic Burden of Chronic Kidney Disease in Hungary

Provisionally accepted
Lilla Szabó Lilla Szabó 1Luca A. Halmai Luca A. Halmai 1Erzsébet Ladányi Erzsébet Ladányi 2Juan Jose Garcia Sanchez Juan Jose Garcia Sanchez 3Salvatore Barone Salvatore Barone 4Claudia Cabrera Claudia Cabrera 5Lise Retat Lise Retat 6Laura Webber Laura Webber 6István Wittmann István Wittmann 7*Boglárka Laczy Boglárka Laczy 7
  • 1 AstraZeneca (Hungary), Budapest, Hungary
  • 2 Tritonlife Nephrology Center, Miskolc, Hungary
  • 3 AstraZeneca (United Kingdom), Cambridge, United Kingdom
  • 4 AstraZeneca (United States), Gaithersburg, United States
  • 5 AstraZeneca (Sweden), Gothenburg, Sweden
  • 6 HealthLumen Ltd, London, United Kingdom
  • 7 Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary

The final, formatted version of the article will be published soon.

    Objectives: The Inside CKD programme implemented a microsimulation modelling approach to project the clinical and economic burden of chronic kidney disease (CKD) between 2024 and 2027 in Hungary. Methods: Using the peer-reviewed Inside CKD microsimulation, a virtual Hungarian population was generated that was derived from national records, local demographic data and published epidemiological data. These inputs defined the likelihood of a change in health state for each individual as they progressed through the model in annual increments. Individual CKD status, including disease progression, cardiorenal complications and associated costs, were tracked annually to generate the population-level projections of the clinical and economic burden of CKD. Results: By 2027, people with CKD were projected to constitute 13.3% of the Hungarian national population. The prevalence of heart failure, myocardial infarction and stroke in people with CKD were projected to remain consistently high, reaching 323 447, 69 188 and 120 118 by 2027, respectively. Kidney replacement therapy cases were predicted to remain high at 20 515 in 2024 and 22 325 in 2027, with associated costs increasing from 71.4 billion HUF in 2024 to 79.6 billion HUF in 2027. Total annual healthcare costs associated with treating CKD were projected to constitute 5.4% of the overall national healthcare budget in 2027. Conclusions: Inside CKD demonstrates that the future burden of CKD in Hungary will be substantial unless current management strategies change. The high prevalence of undiagnosed CKD and associated cardiorenal complications highlight the urgent need for policy interventions focussed on early diagnosis and timely intervention to mitigate the future burden of CKD.

    Keywords: Chronic Kidney Disease, disease burden, economic burden, Hungary, Inside CKD

    Received: 02 Jul 2024; Accepted: 01 Oct 2024.

    Copyright: © 2024 Szabó, Halmai, Ladányi, Garcia Sanchez, Barone, Cabrera, Retat, Webber, Wittmann and Laczy. This is an open-access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License (CC BY). The use, distribution or reproduction in other forums is permitted, provided the original author(s) or licensor are credited and that the original publication in this journal is cited, in accordance with accepted academic practice. No use, distribution or reproduction is permitted which does not comply with these terms.

    * Correspondence: István Wittmann, Medical School, University of Pécs, Pécs, Hungary

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